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The diaspora model for human migration. (arXiv:2309.03070v1 [physics.soc-ph])

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Migration's impact spans various social dimensions, including demography,
sustainability, politics, economy and gender disparities. Yet, the
decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains
elusive. Existing models primarily rely on population size and travel distance
to explain flow fluctuations, overlooking significant population
heterogeneities. Paradoxically, migrants often travel long distances and to
smaller destinations if their diaspora is present in those locations. To
address this gap, we propose the diaspora model of migration, incorporating
intensity (the number of people moving to a country) and assortativity (the
destination within the country). Our model considers only the existing diaspora
sizes in the destination country, influencing the probability of migrants
selecting a specific residence. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately
reproduces the observed stable flow and distribution of migration in Austria
(postal code level) and US metropolitan areas, yielding precise estimates of
migrant inflow at various geographic scales. Given the increase in
international migrations due to recent natural and societal crises, this study
enlightens our understanding of migration flow heterogeneities, helping design
more inclusive, integrated cities.

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