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(Empirical) Bayes Approaches to Parallel Trends

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arXiv:2404.11839v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: We consider Bayes and Empirical Bayes (EB) approaches for dealing with violations of parallel trends. In the Bayes approach, the researcher specifies a prior over both the pre-treatment violations of parallel trends $\delta_{pre}$ and the post-treatment violations $\delta_{post}$. The researcher then updates their posterior about the post-treatment bias $\delta_{post}$ given an estimate of the pre-trends $\delta_{pre}$. This allows them to form posterior means and credible sets for the treatment effect of interest, $\tau_{post}$. In the EB approach, the prior on the violations of parallel trends is learned from the pre-treatment observations. We illustrate these approaches in two empirical applications.

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